CUI Yanan, ZHANG Chunyu, LV Xiao, ZHAO Xuanye, FU Xueqian
Online available: 2026-10-30
PV power output is characterized by significant randomness, fluctuation, and intermittency, and its uncertainty may affect power system planning assessment, dispatch decision-making, and real-time operation. To systematically understand the development status of uncertainty modeling methods for PV power generation, this paper reviews year-round PV scenario generation and multi-timescale power forecasting, and analyzes the relationships among PV output, influencing factors, and system applications from three dimensions: statistical uncertainty, variable relationship modeling, and artificial intelligence methods. For the year-round scale, meteorology-driven scenario generation methods for long time series are discussed, including probabilistic statistical methods, deep generative methods, relational constraints, and engineering-oriented evaluation issues. For the day-ahead scale, feature extraction, probabilistic forecasting, and robust modeling methods driven by historical power, meteorological variables, and numerical weather prediction are reviewed. For the intraday scale, signal decomposition, deep learning, regional collaborative modeling, and multi-source perception methods for short-term power fluctuation awareness are summarized. On this basis, future research directions, including multi-timescale collaborative modeling, multi-source heterogeneous information fusion, controllable generative modeling, extreme scenario characterization, and engineering closed-loop validation, are further analyzed. This paper provides a reference for scenario generation, power forecasting, and power system operation analysis under high PV penetration.